Hermine Hugs the East Coast, Gaston Grazes the Azores, and Lester Looms Near Hawaii

It has been very active in the tropics. In fact, every tropical cyclone over the past several days in the central/eastern Pacific and the Atlantic has had at least one tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning:

• Tropical Depression Eight (Atlantic) had Tropical Storm Warnings for the Outer Banks of North Carolina
• Hurricane Madeline (now dissipated) had Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings for parts of Hawaii
• Hurricane (now Tropical Storm) Gaston has Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the Azores
• Hurricane (now Tropical Storm) Hermine had Hurricane Watches and Warnings for parts of Florida and currently has Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings up and down the Eastern Seaboard
• Hurricane Lester currently has Hurricane Watches for portions of Hawaii

So, let's start with the threat to the Azores: Tropical Storm Gaston

TROPICAL STORM GASTON

Well, Gaston's days are numbered. What was once an impressive major hurricane is now a nearly convectionless swirl. Here is the latest (11 PM AST) Advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.1N 28.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM N OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Flores and Corvo in the western Azores, and for Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores. Gaston is expected to continue weakening and dissipate into a remnant low by Saturday. The saga of Gaston will soon come to an end.

HURRICANE LESTER

Lester is a Category 2 Hurricane moving to the north of Hawaii. However, Hurricane Watches continue for the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, and Oahu. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions (winds of 74+ mph) are possible within the next 48 hours. Here is the latest information (5 PM HST) from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 151.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

While Lester is expected to remain north of the Hawaiian Islands, gusty winds, possibly to near hurricane force, heavy rainfall, and dangerous surf are possible in Hawaii.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE

Hermine roared ashore just east of St. Marks, Florida around 1:30 AM EDT Friday morning as a Category 1 Hurricane, packing winds of 80 mph. Hermine's landfall marked the end of the 3,966-day hurricane drought in Florida. Hermine produced record-breaking storm surge in Cedar Key, FL, and widespread tree damage in the Tallahassee area. Reports of tornadoes, flooding, and strong winds were reported across much of the state. Hermine moved into southern Georgia and eastern South Carolina through the day Friday, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall. Now, Hermine is moving through portions of North Carolina as a mid-grade Tropical Storm. Here is the latest information (as of 11 PM EDT) from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 78.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

There are Tropical Storm Watches and Warning all up and down the East Coast. Here are the latest watches and warnings:

• TROPICAL STORM WARNING: from Edisto Beach, SC, to Sandy Hook, NJ; for Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds; for Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward; for Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward; for Delaware Bay
• TROPICAL STORM WATCH: from north of Sandy Hook, NJ, to west of Watch Hill, RI

Hermine will move off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic by Satuday evening, then stall or meander off/near the coast of the Mid-Atlantic through the middle of next week. There is a possibility that Hermine may strengthen back to near hurricane strength early next week.

Hermine could produce more heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina, Virginia, the Delmarva Peninsula, and coastal southern New Jersey. Rainbands on the southern side of Hermine could also produce heavy rainfall across northern Florida through early Saturday.

The main issue with Hermine will be the storm surge. The worst of the storm surge looks to be near the Hampton Roads area. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the tidewater region of Virginia and the southern tip of the Delmarva. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the southern and eastern tip of the Delmarva up to southwestern Connecticut. Storm surge could reach 3 to 5 feet near the Hampton Roads area and 2 to 4 feet in the Storm Surge Watch area. This is due to the fact that Hermine could stall east of the coast and possibly strengthen. The onshore flow along portions of the coast could cause significant and life-threatening storm surge in the watch and warning area.

This is the 00Z (8 PM EDT) run of the GFS. You can see Hermine will move off the coast of North Carolina, then wobble around off the coast for the next several days. This onshore wind along the East Coast will pile up water and allow for storm surge flooding in many areas. There is a question, however, of whether Hermine will be post-tropical (having frontal characteristics), fully tropical, or become post-tropical then tropical again. Regardless of its designation, dangerous surf and potentially life-threatening storm surge is likely just in time for the Labor Day weekend.

INVEST 92L

Not quite done with the tropics yet. Here is Invest 92L in the central Atlantic. This was the wave coming off of Africa I talked about a few posts ago. Well, it has battled dry Saharan air (and actually lost its invest designation), but it is trying to get itself reorganized. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

Shower activity has increased since yesterday in association with a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
However, environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and
any additional development of this system should be slow to occur
while it approaches the Lesser Antilles and continues westward into
the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Now, we can't speculate on whether this will develop or how strong it will get. Right now, the models do agree that 92L will move into the central Caribbean during the next several days. Beyond that, it's anyone's guess.

Remember, we are approaching the peak of Hurricane Season. Hermine was a good reminder to everyone that you should always be prepared for a disaster. Have your emergency kit fully stocked at all times, and just keep an eye on the tropics. Stay safe, be prepared, and know your sources.

Tropical Threats to Hawaii and Florida

There are not one, not two, but THREE tropical cyclones that are threatening the United States, namely Hawaii and Florida. First, here is a quick update on the other systems.

HURRICANE GASTON

Gaston is a Category 2 hurricane tracking east-northeastward across the northern Atlantic. Gaston could affect the Azores into this weekend as a weakening tropical storm. Here is the latest track and information from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 45.4W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a part of the Azores. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH means that tropical storm conditions (winds of 39-74 mph) are possible within the next 48 hours.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT

Tropical Depression Eight is moving away from the North Carolina Outer Banks. Minimal impacts expected. Just some higher waves and dangerous rip currents expected. TD 8 is expected to merge with a front as it accelerates northeastward. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 70.1W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

Now, lets start talking about the threats to Hawaii.

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE

Madeline has weakened from a major hurricane yesterday back to a tropical storm now. However, Hawai'i as a whole is not accustomed to hurricanes or strong tropical storms. So this is a serious threat. Here is the latest information and track for Hurricane Madeline from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 155.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

There is a TROPICAL STORM WARNING for the islands of Hawai'i, Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe. 

• TROPICAL STORM WARNING - tropical storm conditions (winds of 39-74 mph) are expected within the next 36 hours

Strong winds, heavy rain, and dangerous surf are expected along the southern islands of Hawai'i. The worst effects will be felt along the Big Island.

MAJOR HURRICANE LESTER

Lester is a Category 3 hurricane moving off toward the west across the central Pacific. The hurricane is expected to weaken as it approaches Hawai'i this weekend. Here is the latest information for Hurricane Lester from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 141.2W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Much of the state of Hawai'i is in the projected path. But, again, main threats look to be increased surf, high winds, and heavy rainfall. Tropical Storm Watches or Hurricane Watches may be required as we head into the day Thursday.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE

Tropical Depressoon Nine strengthened into Tropical Storm Hermine at 1 PM CDT after the Hurricane Hunters found sustained tropical-storm force winds. It is getting better organized, and Hermine is expected to strengthen until landfall. Here is the latest track and information from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 87.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Now, there are a lot of watches and warnings in effect. The map above only shows the coastal watches and warnings. I will provide the counties under the Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches/Warnings (as of 10 PM CDT):

• HURRICANE WARNING: [in Florida]: Gulf, Gadsden, Liberty, Franklin, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, coastal Dixie
• TROPICAL STORM WARNING: [in Florida]: Levy, Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, Jackson, Calhoun, inland Dixie, [in Georgia]: Seminole, Decatur, Grady, Thomas, Brooks, Lowndes, Early, Miller, Baker, Mitchell, Colquitt, Cook, Lanier, Clay, Calhoun, Dougherty, Berrien, Worth, Tift, Turner, Irwin, Ben Hill, Quitman, Terrell, Randolph, Lee, [in Alabama]: Geneva, Houston, Henry
• HURRICANE WATCH: [in Florida]: south Walton, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Gadsden, Liberty, Franklin, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, coastal Dixie, coastal Levy, coastal Citrus, coastal Hernando, coastal Pasco
• TROPICAL STORM WATCH: [in Florida]: Hamilton, Suwannee, Columbia, Baker, Nassau, Duval, Union, Bradford, Clay, St. Johns, Gilchrist, Alachua, Putnam, Marion, [in Georgia]: Coffee, Jeff Davis, Bacon, Appling, Wayne, Atkinson, Ware, Pierce, Brantley, Glynn, Echols, Clinch, Charlton, Camden, Washington, Glascock, Jefferson, Twiggs, Wilkinson, Johnson, Emanuel, Schley, Macon, Peach, Houston, Bleckley, Laurens, Treatment, Sumter, Dooly, Crisp, Pulaski, Wilcox, Dodge, Telfair, Wheeler, Montgomery, Toombs, Screven, Jenkins, Effingham, Bulloch, Candler, Tattnall, Evans, Long, Liberty, Bryan, Chatham, McIntosh, [in South Carolina]: Allendale, Hampton, Jaspee, Colleton, Beaufort, Dorchester, Charleston, Berkeley

Now, the National Hurricane Center has also released an experimental product (which will become operational next year. There is a STORM SURGE WARNING for areas from near Indian Pass to near Spring Hill. A Storm Surge Warning mean that life-threatening storm surge and inundation is expected within the warning area.

Now, this is the reasonable worst-case storm surge flooding, most areas along the Big Bend and northern west coast will see at least 1 foot of storm surge flooding. Within the Big Bend, it's not out of the question to see 3 to 6 feet of storm surge flooding. And this does not include waves on top of that surge. It is highly recommended that if you live in these areas that you seek higher ground.

Even outside of these areas, coastal flooding can still occur, especially near high tide. There is a high risk of rip currents and also high surf. Heavy rainfall is occurring along the west coast of Florida and is expected to continue. Most of the effects will be on the east side of the system, so it is important not to focus on just the cone. If you are under a Tropical Storm Warning, you need to have your emergency preparedness kit ready to go. Heed all evacuation orders. If you are under a Tropical Storm Watch, you need to be stocking your emergency preparedness kit and be ready to use it if necessary. Monitor local officials, and official sources such as NOAA, NWS, NHC, etc. For everyone, be prepared for power outages under a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning. Tornadoes are possible across much of north central Florida into southeastern Georgia.

Stay safe, be prepared, and monitor local sources.

Useful links:
National Hurricane Center: website, Facebook, @NWSNHC, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: website
NWS Honolulu: website, Facebook, Twitter
NWS Tallahassee: website, Facebook, Twitter
NWS Tampa Bay: website, Facebook, Twitter
NWS Jacksonville: website, Facebook, Twitter
NWS Peachtree City: website, Facbook, Twitter
NWS Charleston: website, Facebook, Twitter