Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Tropical Threats to Hawaii and Florida

There are not one, not two, but THREE tropical cyclones that are threatening the United States, namely Hawaii and Florida. First, here is a quick update on the other systems.

HURRICANE GASTON



Gaston is a Category 2 hurricane tracking east-northeastward across the northern Atlantic. Gaston could affect the Azores into this weekend as a weakening tropical storm. Here is the latest track and information from the National Hurricane Center:


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 45.4W
ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM W OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a part of the Azores. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH means that tropical storm conditions (winds of 39-74 mph) are possible within the next 48 hours.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT



Tropical Depression Eight is moving away from the North Carolina Outer Banks. Minimal impacts expected. Just some higher waves and dangerous rip currents expected. TD 8 is expected to merge with a front as it accelerates northeastward. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 70.1W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
Now, lets start talking about the threats to Hawaii.

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE



Madeline has weakened from a major hurricane yesterday back to a tropical storm now. However, Hawai'i as a whole is not accustomed to hurricanes or strong tropical storms. So this is a serious threat. Here is the latest information and track for Hurricane Madeline from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center:


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 155.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
There is a TROPICAL STORM WARNING for the islands of Hawai'i, Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe. 
  • TROPICAL STORM WARNING - tropical storm conditions (winds of 39-74 mph) are expected within the next 36 hours
Strong winds, heavy rain, and dangerous surf are expected along the southern islands of Hawai'i. The worst effects will be felt along the Big Island.

MAJOR HURRICANE LESTER



Lester is a Category 3 hurricane moving off toward the west across the central Pacific. The hurricane is expected to weaken as it approaches Hawai'i this weekend. Here is the latest information for Hurricane Lester from the National Hurricane Center:


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 141.2W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
Much of the state of Hawai'i is in the projected path. But, again, main threats look to be increased surf, high winds, and heavy rainfall. Tropical Storm Watches or Hurricane Watches may be required as we head into the day Thursday.


TROPICAL STORM HERMINE



Tropical Depressoon Nine strengthened into Tropical Storm Hermine at 1 PM CDT after the Hurricane Hunters found sustained tropical-storm force winds. It is getting better organized, and Hermine is expected to strengthen until landfall. Here is the latest track and information from the National Hurricane Center:


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 87.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Now, there are a lot of watches and warnings in effect. The map above only shows the coastal watches and warnings. I will provide the counties under the Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches/Warnings (as of 10 PM CDT):
  • HURRICANE WARNING: [in Florida]: Gulf, Gadsden, Liberty, Franklin, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, coastal Dixie
  • TROPICAL STORM WARNING: [in Florida]: Levy, Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, Jackson, Calhoun, inland Dixie, [in Georgia]: Seminole, Decatur, Grady, Thomas, Brooks, Lowndes, Early, Miller, Baker, Mitchell, Colquitt, Cook, Lanier, Clay, Calhoun, Dougherty, Berrien, Worth, Tift, Turner, Irwin, Ben Hill, Quitman, Terrell, Randolph, Lee, [in Alabama]: Geneva, Houston, Henry
  • HURRICANE WATCH: [in Florida]: south Walton, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Gadsden, Liberty, Franklin, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, Madison, Taylor, coastal Dixie, coastal Levy, coastal Citrus, coastal Hernando, coastal Pasco
  • TROPICAL STORM WATCH: [in Florida]: Hamilton, Suwannee, Columbia, Baker, Nassau, Duval, Union, Bradford, Clay, St. Johns, Gilchrist, Alachua, Putnam, Marion, [in Georgia]: Coffee, Jeff Davis, Bacon, Appling, Wayne, Atkinson, Ware, Pierce, Brantley, Glynn, Echols, Clinch, Charlton, Camden, Washington, Glascock, Jefferson, Twiggs, Wilkinson, Johnson, Emanuel, Schley, Macon, Peach, Houston, Bleckley, Laurens, Treatment, Sumter, Dooly, Crisp, Pulaski, Wilcox, Dodge, Telfair, Wheeler, Montgomery, Toombs, Screven, Jenkins, Effingham, Bulloch, Candler, Tattnall, Evans, Long, Liberty, Bryan, Chatham, McIntosh, [in South Carolina]: Allendale, Hampton, Jaspee, Colleton, Beaufort, Dorchester, Charleston, Berkeley

Now, the National Hurricane Center has also released an experimental product (which will become operational next year. There is a STORM SURGE WARNING for areas from near Indian Pass to near Spring Hill. A Storm Surge Warning mean that life-threatening storm surge and inundation is expected within the warning area.


Now, this is the reasonable worst-case storm surge flooding, most areas along the Big Bend and northern west coast will see at least 1 foot of storm surge flooding. Within the Big Bend, it's not out of the question to see 3 to 6 feet of storm surge flooding. And this does not include waves on top of that surge. It is highly recommended that if you live in these areas that you seek higher ground.

Even outside of these areas, coastal flooding can still occur, especially near high tide. There is a high risk of rip currents and also high surf. Heavy rainfall is occurring along the west coast of Florida and is expected to continue. Most of the effects will be on the east side of the system, so it is important not to focus on just the cone. If you are under a Tropical Storm Warning, you need to have your emergency preparedness kit ready to go. Heed all evacuation orders. If you are under a Tropical Storm Watch, you need to be stocking your emergency preparedness kit and be ready to use it if necessary. Monitor local officials, and official sources such as NOAA, NWS, NHC, etc. For everyone, be prepared for power outages under a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning. Tornadoes are possible across much of north central Florida into southeastern Georgia.

Stay safe, be prepared, and monitor local sources.

Useful links:
National Hurricane Center: website, Facebook, @NWSNHC, @NHC_Atlantic, @NHC_Pacific
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: website
NWS Honolulu: website, Facebook, Twitter
NWS Tallahassee: website, Facebook, Twitter
NWS Tampa Bay: website, Facebook, Twitter
NWS Jacksonville: website, Facebook, Twitter
NWS Peachtree City: website, Facbook, Twitter
NWS Charleston: website, Facebook, Twitter

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