"Major Hurricane will Strike this U.S. City! Catastrophic Destruction is CERTAIN!"And every meteorologist collectively rolls their eyes. Well, let's talk about some ways that you can be sure you don't fall prey to these social media storms.
Don't Believe Everything You Read
Social media is a very useful tool for dispersing information, but that doesn't mean that it's always trustworthy. Sometimes you end up with posts like this:
 |
| Hyped-up hurricane "forecast." Image source: http://media.nola.com/hurricane_impact/photo/bogus-hurricane-path-d2cf288128cb5eb0.png |
Notice a few things on this single image:
- Have you ever heard of WeatherAlertCentral.com? Research before believing. Confirm that what they post is accurate and corresponds with official sources (National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, your favorite TV meteorologist).
- The title automatically goes to the worst case scenario, and it's in ALL CAPS! Hyped titles like this should cast some doubt about its credibility.
- The map. Notice how nearly every major Gulf Coast city is in the "path" of this "hurricane," including the entire state of Florida. That should also be another red flag. Again, pay attention to official sources.
Pages like this are posting content like this simply to get more likes and shares. Look at how many people shared the post: 77,159. Yikes! This spread of misinformation makes social media potentially dangerous.
Errors Grow Quickly
Let's get a little geeky here. Every computer model is based on math and physics that attempt to describe the atmosphere. There are also some things that have to be calculated using workaround methods (parameterization). Small differences in the math/physics from the real atmosphere can lead to enormous errors rather quickly. Not only that, but the model tries to make a guess at what the atmosphere looks like using its own data and some real observations. While the models do adjust somewhat for the observations, it can also reject actual observations if it's too different from what the model thinks. If there is no data available (a big problem over oceans), then there is (next to) nothing that can correct the model. Thus, the model keeps any errors, and it can maintain those errors for a long time. Remember, all of these errors quickly multiply the further out you run the model.
For example, let's take a simple math problem:
We know that 2+2 is equal to 4, but what if we made a slight mistake and said it was equal to 5. An error of 1 doesn't seem so bad, but those errors can grow very quickly. If we use the error and multiply it by itself once, we're now off by 9. Keep multiplying, and you see the error grow substantially. Once we multiplied the wrong answer by itself for the fifth time, we are now off by over 2,100. Yikes! While the errors likely don't accumulate that fast in the computer models, this gives you the idea that errors can grow quickly. This is why you shouldn't trust the models too far out. They are just guidance, not gospel!
Stay Calm, but Be Prepared!
If you do see something from an official source that could be threatening to you, stay calm. I know its easier said than done, but one thing that can help you remain calm is being prepared.
- Have your emergency kit fully stocked at all times (including food, water, batteries, etc.)
- Know your evacuation zone and route.
- Keep up with forecasts and the latest information from official sources.
- Don't read the hyped posts. Those may cause you to panic more.
Remember, we are in Hurricane Season right now, so we do have to keep our eyes out for anything that may form.
TL;DR
- Know your sources, and don't believe everything you read.
- Do some research before believing or sharing something.
- Don't trust models that show something more than a week out. Errors can grow rapidly.
- Consistency in the models is better, but models can be consistently wrong.
- No one model is always accurate.
- It only takes one storm. You should always be prepared.
No comments:
Post a Comment