Active Tropics: Ian and Julia in the Atlantic, Orlene in the Eastern Pacific, Meranti near Taiwan

Two tropical storms in the Atlantic, a hurricane in the eastern Pacific, and a super typhoon and tropical storm in the western Pacific - pretty much describes September in the tropics. Let's start in the western Pacific with Meranti.

SUPER TYPHOON MERANTI

This is Super Typhoon Meranti. It has just passed by (as of 9 PM CDT/02Z) the southern tip of Taiwan. It is starting to weaken as the eye of Meranti is starting to become covered in clouds and is cooling (brighter colors). Generally, for a healthy tropical cyclone, you want cold-topped thunderstorms with a warmer eye. The greater the contrast between the thunderstorms near the center and the eye, the stronger the tropical cyclone is. Also, interesting fact: earlier today, Meranti became tied for 2nd for the strongest winds estimated for a typhoon in the western Pacific with winds of 190 mph. The strongest winds estimated for a typhoon were 195 mph from Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Satellite estimation is most common with systems that are over open waters and away from any observation sites. The most common satellite estimation techinique is the Dvorak method. You can read more about it here. The strongest winds ever recorded for a tropical cyclone, period, was Hurricane Patricia with sustained winds of 215 mph! Here is the latest (7 PM CDT/00Z) advisory information from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

Meranti was located at 21.6 N, 120.7 E, moving NW at 15 mph. The maximum sustained winds (estimated by satellite) were 180 mph, making Meranti a Super Typhoon and equivalent to a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Meranti is forecast to continue moving northwestward toward mainland China, possibly landfalling as a typhoon. Heavy rain will lead to flooding across portions of southeast China over the coming days.

TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS

This is Tropical Storm Malakas in the western Pacific east of the Philippines. Malakas is not expected to directly impact the Philippines, but could pose a threat to Japan over the coming days. Here is the latest (7 PM CDT/00Z) advisory information for Malakas from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

Malakas is currently located at 15.5 N, 133.0 E, and is moving WNW at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds (estimated) are near 70 mph. Malakas is expected to intensify and gain typhoon status shortly and continue strengthening as it moves primarily to the north of Taiwan, though it is not currently forecast to become a super typhoon. However, Malakas is currently forecast to impact southern Japan as a typhoon in the coming days.

HURRICANE ORLENE

This is Hurricane Orlene in the eastern Pacific. Orlene is just drifting around right now, but is expected to make a turn toward the west soon. Here is the latest (10 PM CDT/03Z) information for Orlene from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 118.6W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

Yes, you read that correctly. Orlene is moving north at 1 mph. That's probably the slowest setting you have on your treadmill. Orlene is expected to weaken as it makes its westward turn, and could weaken back to tropical depression status this weekend.

TROPICAL STORM IAN

Ian is still rather disorganized. If you look closely, you can see that the center is south of the main area of convection as Ian continues to deal with strong southerly shear. This has helped to inhibit any major strengthening thus far. Here is the latest (10 PM CDT/03Z) information from Ian from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 52.8W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Ian is expected to remain away from any land areas and affect no one. That's what we like to see. Ian may strengthen a bit more, and some guidance brings it close to hurricane status. The official forecast calls for a maximum intensity of 65 mph.

TROPICAL STORM JULIA

Surprise! Well, sort of. This was Invest 93-L. The National Hurricane Center at 7 AM CDT Tuesday morning gave this a "near 0% chance" of formation, because it was rather disorganized. Then, at 1 PM CDT, the National Hurricane Center upped the chances to 40%, noting that organization was increasing and that advisories could be initiated soon. They decided not to initiate advisories at 4 PM CDT, but increased the chances of development to 70% at 7 PM CDT. At 10 PM CDT, the National Hurricane Center officially declared this a tropical storm. But, there's something weird about Julia's formation. Technically, Julia became a tropical storm over land. While it has happened before, it is a very rare occurrence. What may have happened is that as 93L paralleled the coast of northeastern Florida, the friction from the land versus the water helped tighten up the circulation moreso, giving 93L more organization. Tropical storm force winds are possible in some of the rainbands. So, here is the latest (10 PM CDT/03Z) information from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 81.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

There are Tropical Storm Warnings in effect for some locations:

• In Florida: coastal Nassau and coastal Duval counties
• In Georgia: Glynn and Camden counties

Julia is expected to move further northward into southern Georgia and weaken. The main threat from Julia will be very heavy rainfall across northeast Florida, southeast Georgia, and parts of coastal South Carolina. 3-6 inches of rain is possible with localized amounts near 10 inches. Also, can't rule out an isolated tornado. In fact, there was a confirmed tornado near Barefoot Bay in Brevard County, Florida Tuesday afternoon.

INVEST 95L

Our final stop takes us out to the other side of the Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. This is Invest 95L, It is moving off to the west-northwest, bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands. Here is the latest (7 PM CDT/00Z) from the National Hurricane Center:

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and
showers.  Slow development of this disturbance is possible during
the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the tropical Atlantic.  Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Some development from 95L is possible over the coming days. Here are the latest model runs for 95L:

Once 95L clears the Cabo Verde Islands, it will continue on a west or west-northwest track over the open tropical Atlantic, not affecting any land in the forseeable future. But, if 95L does become a named storm, the next name on the list is Karl.

Taiwan's Tropical Threat, Ian Forms in the Atlantic

It's September, and we expect the tropics to be active this time of year. We are in the peak of Hurricane Season in the Atlantic, and we do have some activity to watch. But, we start (as our title suggests) in the western Pacific.

SUPER TYPHOON MERANTI

Now, since we are in the western north Pacific (north of the Equator, west of the International Date Line), hurricanes are known as "typhoons." "Super typhoons" are typhoons with winds of 150 mph or greater (equivalent to an upper end Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane). Here is the latest advisory information from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

As of 7 AM CDT (12Z) this morning, STY Meranti was located near 18.9N, 128.2E. Meranti was moving WNW at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were at 180 mph (equivalent to a powerful Category 5 hurricane). Meranti is expected to move WNW toward southern Taiwan and potentially make landfall as a Super Typhoon with winds of 155 mph. Very heavy rain (especially with mountain influence) and potentially catastrophic winds are possible as Meranti moves very near or over Taiwan. Meranti is then expected to continue moving into mainland China.

HURRICANE ORLENE

This is Hurricane Orlene in the eastern Pacific. Right now, Orlene is well away from land and isn't expected to impact land over the next several days. Here is the latest advisory information from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 119.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

Orlene will continue drifting northward through Tuesday before making a turn back to the west by Wednesday, and also will slowly weaken back to tropical storm status.

TROPICAL STORM IAN

Advisories were initiated on Tropical Storm Ian at 10 AM CDT Monday morning. On satellite, you see the center is exposed on the southwestern side of the convection. This is because Ian is on the west side of an upper-level trough, and is being sheared. Here is the latest advisory information from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 50.4W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1840 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Right now, Ian is not expected to become a hurricane, but it could get close. Thankfully, Ian looks to remain away from land throughout its lifetime.

INVEST 93L

Now, the path of 93L looks somewhat ominous, taking it over the Florida Peninsula, but I can assure you it's not as bad as it looks. 93L looks very ragged:

There is no sign of a closed surface circulation. Plus, the showers and thunderstorms are very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center gives 93L only a 10% chance of developing over the next 5 days. The main impact will be heavy rain over the Bahamas and parts of Florida. Increased moisture will lead to higher rain chances across portions of the Southeast as well.

Remember to always be prepared as we continue through Hurricane Season.

Calmer Tropics, But Still Bears Watching.

After Madeline (Hawaii), Lester (Hawaii), TD 8 (North Carolina), Gaston (Azores), Hermine (Florida and East Coast), and Newton (Mexico and southwest U.S.), we actually have no names storms or tropical depressions in the central Pacific, eastern Pacific, and Atlantic basins. But, that doesn't mean that there aren't things to watch for right now, especially now that we are approaching the statistical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Also, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a great article discussing why August through October is the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. You can read it here.

Anyways, let's start in the central Pacific and work out way over to the Atlantic.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII

This low pressure system doesn't appear to develop over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions don't support anything more than limited organization. (Note: the Central Pacific Hurricane Center does not include 5-day formation chances in their outlooks.)

A weak surface low is located about 800 miles southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop near
the low, but show little signs of organization. Environmental
conditions support limited organization over the next couple of
days as it moves toward the west at less than 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent

INVEST 92E

This is Invest 92E well away from Mexico. If you recall, in the Atlantic, invests are have an L at the end of their number. This letter changes depending on the basin:

• L = Atlantic
• E = eastern north Pacific (east of 140°W. longitude)
• C = central north Pacific (between 140°W. and 180° longitude)
• W = western north Pacific (west of 180° longitude)
• B = Bay of Bengal
• A = Arabian Sea
• S = south Pacific west of 135°E. longitude)
• P = south Pacific east of 135°E. longitude)

Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center on Invest 92E:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  This
system is currently producing a large but disorganized area of
showers and thunderstorms.  However, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

As you can see, the National Hurricane Center does expect 92E to develop by early next week and continue moving away from land. Here is the model guidance for 92E:

As you can see, out through 5 days (120 hours), most models take 92E off to the west, not affecting anyone.

INVEST 93L

This is Invest 93L just to the east of the northern Leewars Islands. This system is rather weak, but it could still being some heavy showers to parts of the northern Leeward Islands. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

A large area of cloudiness with showers and a few thunderstorms
located about 200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a weak disturbance.  Surface pressures remain high
in this area, and there are no signs of a surface circulation.
During the next few days, this system is expected to move west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and conditions are not expected to
be conducive for significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Overall, conditions just don't appear favorable for significant development. Right now, it looks like 93L will remain weak. Here are the models for 93L:

We don't see a whole lot of agreement in the models, and that's generally because these models shown here aren't very reliable. Also, 93L is very weak, so the models won't have a good grasp on this system. Overall, very little, if any, development expected.

INVEST 94L

This system is newly designated, so there is not a floater satellite (basically a storm-centered view) up yet. This system is southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather located about
700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave.  Any development of this
system will likely be slow to occur during the next couple of days.
However, conditions are forecast to become more favorable early next
week, and a tropical depression could form in the central Atlantic
while the system moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

It is possible that we could see our next tropical depression by early next week. The next name on the list is Ian. But, this system looks like it will move out to sea over the next several days. Once again, since this system was newly designated as 94L, we don't have the storm-centered models quite yet.

Again, we are in the peak of Hurricane Season, so it's very important to stay informed and always be prepared.

Definitely Active in the Tropics

We've had quite a bit of hype from several sources about former-Invest 99L, but shortly after we got a tropical depression upgrade in the Florida Straits (more on that later), articles like this started popping up.

And this comes from a reputable news source! Several meteorologists, storm chasers, and others quickly squelched this article, and NBC Nightly News quickly removed the tweet. But this just shows you, watch where you get your information from! Even reputable news sources are guilty of posting these articles. It's a classic example of fearmongering and clickbaiting. Just beware! You can read my post about over-hyping here.

Now that that's out of the way, let's move forward with the tropics, as there really is a lot going on.

Our first stop takes us to the central and eastern Pacific. Why out here? Well there are potential threats to Hawai'i over the coming days. We will start with the closes storm to Hawai'i.

MAJOR HURRICANE MADELINE

This is Madeline churning over the central Pacific. Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 145.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

Madeline is a Category 3 Hurricane moving to the west-northwest. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the island of Hawai'i. Gradual weakening is expected, and Madeline is expected to pass near the island of Hawai'i as a gradually weakening hurricane.

Models are a bit spread as Madeline approaches Hawai'i. Right now, if it makes landfall, it would likely be on the island of Hawai'i. But there is a good amount of guidance that takes it further south. Either way, heavy rain, gusty winds, and increased surf are possible with Madeline.

MAJOR HURRICANE LESTER

This is Hurricane Lester in the eastern Pacific, well away from any land right now. Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 130.5W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

Right now, Lester is a strong Category 4 major hurricane. Intensity forecasts show that Lester will start to weaken as it approaches Hawai'i, but still keeping it a hurricane. The projected path brings it closer to Hawai'i in 5 days as a hurricane.

In the long range, the models tend to keep Lester north of the Hawaiian Islands. However, yet again, heavy rain and increased surf will be the main threats. Now, if either Lester or Madeline make landfall on any of the Hawaiian Islands, it would be the second tropical cyclone to make landfall (Darby was the first in July).

Now, let's move to the Atlantic.

DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO

A weak area of low pressure near the Texas coast will wander southwestward, but it should not develop. Heavy rain will be the main threat in southeastern Texas. The latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center says:

A weak trough of low pressure located just offshore of the central
coast of Texas is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent
coastal areas.  Proximity to land and only marginally favorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development while the
system drifts southwestward during the next day or so.  For
additional information on the rainfall associated with this system,
please see products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

HURRICANE GASTON

At 4 PM CDT Sunday, Gaston became the first major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It has weakened a bit since then. Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 55.2W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1665 MI...2675 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

Gaston is a strong Category 2 hurricane, and it's expected to slowly weaken back to tropical storm status as it approaches the Azores this weekend.

Models are in pretty good agreement through the next several days as Gaston makes that turn toward the northeast. The only threat to land could be the Azores late next week, but a lot can change between now and then.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT

Well, Tropical Depression Eight is encountering some strong shear, leaving the system lopsided. The shear is going to help keep TD 8 in check. Right now, here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 74.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Outer Banks of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet and also for Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning means that that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 mph or greater) are expected within the next 36 hours. However, even if TD 8 doesn't make landfall, most of the showers and storms will be on the west side of the system. Also, it appears that TD 8 will not become a particularly strong tropical storm. But, heavy rain, rough surf, and deadly rip currents will be possible for portions of coastal North Carolina.

Anything after 72 hours is the result of TD 8 losing its identity and merging with a front. But, models are in decent agreement about bringing TD 8 close to the North Carolina coast before being swept out into the far north Atlantic.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE

After about 11 days of tracking this system as Invest 99L, it finally became a tropical depression Sunday afternoon after the Hurricane Hunters found that former-99L had a well-defined closed circulation. Now, that does not mean it's well-organized. It has been battling wind shear, but that is starting to subside as TD 9 moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, the main thing that TD 9 is battling is some dry air. Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 84.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

The National Hurricane Center notes that a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf Coast. Now, TD 9 actually took a dive to the west-southwest Sunday evening as it was interacting with Cuba. Most of the time, land is not a good thing for tropical cyclones. But sometimes, it can help the circulation a bit. With the friction caused by land, TD 9's circulation was able to tighten up on the southern side and convection to flare up on the southern side of its circulation. This allowed for TD 9 to move a bit more to the west-southwest. But, it has since started moving toward the west. Eventually, TD 9 is expected to turn more toward the northwest and then to the north. Then, a cold front (the same one expected to sweep away TD 8) will cause TD 9 to turn toward the northeast. Where and when all these turns occur will ultimately determine where TD 9 will make landfall. The current forecast from the National Hurrican Center calls for a strong tropical storm to make landfall somewhere between Port St. Joe and Sarasota.

These are the possibilities of seeing tropical storm force winds (sustained winds greater than or equal to 39 mph). Right now, the best chance looks to be between Port St. Joe and Tampa. Again, a lot can change between now and Thursday (when this could make landfall).

Let's look at the models and see what they're saying:

The one thing that models agree on is that TD 9 will eventually turn toward the northeast, but they greatly differ on when that turn will occur, so the models are really spread from Pensacola to Fort Myers. Again, still need to watch this system anywhere in Florida.

Let's look at our two most reliable models (GFS and ECMWF):

This is the 12Z (7 AM CDT) run of the GFS from Monday morning. This run is generally in the middle of all the guidance, but may have trended a touch north with a landfall southwest of Perry as a tropical storm. Again, this is just one run of one model. But let's look at the ECMWF.

The ECMWF is stronger than the GFS, but essentially the same track. However, the ECMWF, like the GFS, also has trended just slightly more west and north compared to the last run. And this slight shift westward can be seen in our model ensembles.

Ensembles (in this case, the GEFS) are the same model (in this case, the GFS) run with slightly different initial conditions. These alterations in the initial conditions help provide a range of possibilities. On the map above, all of the tiny red numbers near the Florida Panjandle are different positions for TD 9. There is a bit more cluster near Panama City and Apalachicola. This is just something to monitor as we go forward in time.

Note that even a strong tropical storm can cause storm surge issues in the Big Bend of Florida. That area is one of the most storm surge prone areas in the United States. The storm is likely to be lopsided due to some shear, so most of the impacts will be felt on the eastern and southeastern side of the system. Heavy rain, gusty winds, dangerous surf, elevated tides, some storm surge, and deadly rip currents are all possible threats which will be fine tuned as we move forward.

TROPICAL WAVE COMING OFF OF AFRICA

There is a pretty strong tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa into the tropical Atlantic and moving near the Cabo Verde Islands. This is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa tonight.  Conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual
development of this system later this week while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

The above animations are the GFS (top) and ECMWF (bottom) out to 7 AM CDT September 3rd. Both models generally agree that this wave (probably will be designated Invest 92L) will move westward across the tropical Atlantic. However, it is way too far out to speculate what will happen beyond 5 days.


Now, remember to get all your information from official sources (NOAA, NWS, NHC, etc.). You can find detailed information about watches and warnings from your local National Weather Service office here. The latest tropical cyclone information (and where I got several of the graphics in this blog) can be found here. Follow the direction of your local officials and emergency management for preparation tips and evacuation information (if it becomes necessary). Make sure your emergency preparedness kit is stocked at all times.

Also, credits to Levi Cowan's website for the model graphics.