Taiwan's Tropical Threat, Ian Forms in the Atlantic

It's September, and we expect the tropics to be active this time of year. We are in the peak of Hurricane Season in the Atlantic, and we do have some activity to watch. But, we start (as our title suggests) in the western Pacific.

SUPER TYPHOON MERANTI

Now, since we are in the western north Pacific (north of the Equator, west of the International Date Line), hurricanes are known as "typhoons." "Super typhoons" are typhoons with winds of 150 mph or greater (equivalent to an upper end Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane). Here is the latest advisory information from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

As of 7 AM CDT (12Z) this morning, STY Meranti was located near 18.9N, 128.2E. Meranti was moving WNW at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were at 180 mph (equivalent to a powerful Category 5 hurricane). Meranti is expected to move WNW toward southern Taiwan and potentially make landfall as a Super Typhoon with winds of 155 mph. Very heavy rain (especially with mountain influence) and potentially catastrophic winds are possible as Meranti moves very near or over Taiwan. Meranti is then expected to continue moving into mainland China.

HURRICANE ORLENE

This is Hurricane Orlene in the eastern Pacific. Right now, Orlene is well away from land and isn't expected to impact land over the next several days. Here is the latest advisory information from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 119.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

Orlene will continue drifting northward through Tuesday before making a turn back to the west by Wednesday, and also will slowly weaken back to tropical storm status.

TROPICAL STORM IAN

Advisories were initiated on Tropical Storm Ian at 10 AM CDT Monday morning. On satellite, you see the center is exposed on the southwestern side of the convection. This is because Ian is on the west side of an upper-level trough, and is being sheared. Here is the latest advisory information from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 50.4W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1840 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Right now, Ian is not expected to become a hurricane, but it could get close. Thankfully, Ian looks to remain away from land throughout its lifetime.

INVEST 93L

Now, the path of 93L looks somewhat ominous, taking it over the Florida Peninsula, but I can assure you it's not as bad as it looks. 93L looks very ragged:

There is no sign of a closed surface circulation. Plus, the showers and thunderstorms are very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center gives 93L only a 10% chance of developing over the next 5 days. The main impact will be heavy rain over the Bahamas and parts of Florida. Increased moisture will lead to higher rain chances across portions of the Southeast as well.

Remember to always be prepared as we continue through Hurricane Season.

Calmer Tropics, But Still Bears Watching.

After Madeline (Hawaii), Lester (Hawaii), TD 8 (North Carolina), Gaston (Azores), Hermine (Florida and East Coast), and Newton (Mexico and southwest U.S.), we actually have no names storms or tropical depressions in the central Pacific, eastern Pacific, and Atlantic basins. But, that doesn't mean that there aren't things to watch for right now, especially now that we are approaching the statistical peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Also, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a great article discussing why August through October is the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. You can read it here.

Anyways, let's start in the central Pacific and work out way over to the Atlantic.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII

This low pressure system doesn't appear to develop over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions don't support anything more than limited organization. (Note: the Central Pacific Hurricane Center does not include 5-day formation chances in their outlooks.)

A weak surface low is located about 800 miles southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop near
the low, but show little signs of organization. Environmental
conditions support limited organization over the next couple of
days as it moves toward the west at less than 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent

INVEST 92E

This is Invest 92E well away from Mexico. If you recall, in the Atlantic, invests are have an L at the end of their number. This letter changes depending on the basin:

• L = Atlantic
• E = eastern north Pacific (east of 140°W. longitude)
• C = central north Pacific (between 140°W. and 180° longitude)
• W = western north Pacific (west of 180° longitude)
• B = Bay of Bengal
• A = Arabian Sea
• S = south Pacific west of 135°E. longitude)
• P = south Pacific east of 135°E. longitude)

Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center on Invest 92E:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located about 700 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  This
system is currently producing a large but disorganized area of
showers and thunderstorms.  However, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

As you can see, the National Hurricane Center does expect 92E to develop by early next week and continue moving away from land. Here is the model guidance for 92E:

As you can see, out through 5 days (120 hours), most models take 92E off to the west, not affecting anyone.

INVEST 93L

This is Invest 93L just to the east of the northern Leewars Islands. This system is rather weak, but it could still being some heavy showers to parts of the northern Leeward Islands. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

A large area of cloudiness with showers and a few thunderstorms
located about 200 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a weak disturbance.  Surface pressures remain high
in this area, and there are no signs of a surface circulation.
During the next few days, this system is expected to move west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and conditions are not expected to
be conducive for significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Overall, conditions just don't appear favorable for significant development. Right now, it looks like 93L will remain weak. Here are the models for 93L:

We don't see a whole lot of agreement in the models, and that's generally because these models shown here aren't very reliable. Also, 93L is very weak, so the models won't have a good grasp on this system. Overall, very little, if any, development expected.

INVEST 94L

This system is newly designated, so there is not a floater satellite (basically a storm-centered view) up yet. This system is southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

A large but disorganized area of disturbed weather located about
700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated
with a westward-moving tropical wave.  Any development of this
system will likely be slow to occur during the next couple of days.
However, conditions are forecast to become more favorable early next
week, and a tropical depression could form in the central Atlantic
while the system moves northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

It is possible that we could see our next tropical depression by early next week. The next name on the list is Ian. But, this system looks like it will move out to sea over the next several days. Once again, since this system was newly designated as 94L, we don't have the storm-centered models quite yet.

Again, we are in the peak of Hurricane Season, so it's very important to stay informed and always be prepared.