All Aboard the Hypetrain! Misleading Posts and Clickbaiting

You've NEVER seen this before in your lifetime! Chances are, you have; but it got your attention. While scrolling through your news feed or your timeline, you have probably seen (and clicked on) these "clickbait" articles - you know, those ones where you have to click through 20 pages just to find out what the article was actually about. Well, those articles are usually nonsense and are nothing that directly affects you. But what about the weather?

Some amateur meteorologists or weather enthusiasts ("social media-rologists" as they've been coined) have started making very flippant posts in recent years. Now, that's not to say ALL of these pages are untrustworthy, but it's becoming more common. Even reputable weather sources utilize these "hype" titles ("44 Million People Are At Risk for Tornadoes"). It's becoming harder and harder to tell who actually is a professional meteorologist, and who is just an over-enthusiastic middle schooler that wants to get as many fans as possible. This is especially true when it comes to the page's name. You've got actual pages such as the US National Weather Service (which you should definitely like and follow) or pages such as Red Goat Alert Weather Service of Meteorology that you probably shouldn't trust. (Sorry if you have a page with this title.)

"But, they provide weather for my hometown."

Sure, they may do so, but so do trustworthy sources, such as your local news station and your local National Weather Service office.

"But they provide warnings for storms."

Okay, now, are they issuing their own warnings? Or, are they using National Weather Service warnings? NWS data is the ONLY official source for watches, warnings, advisories, etc. Even news stations strictly utilize NWS for these alerts. If your weather page that you like is issuing their own warnings, that's a big red flag.

"But they told me that a hurricane is going to strike in 11 days."

This is a HUGE red flag! I came across this post this morning on Facebook. The post has since been deleted due to (deserved) backlash from several notable meteorologists and public alike. Chances are (much like this example above) they posted a picture of one model run with a Category 4 hurricane striking either a major city or where you live more than 7 days out. Really, anything past 5 days is not really reliable, and beyond 7 days, it's usually better to lean toward climatology. Also, the models are going to change every time they run. This is the case with the current system in the Atlantic - Invest 99L.

As of 11 AM CDT, the National Hurricane Center (another page you should like/follow) gives 99L a 10% chance of becoming an organized tropical cyclone during the next 2 days, and a 50% chance during the next 5 days. While that means that there is a 50% chance of developing, that also means there is a 50% chance of it NOT developing. Plus, it's still a good 4 or 5 days away from approaching any land whatsoever.

UPDATE: as of 1 PM, the 5-day formation chance was upped to 60%.

Now, there is one thing that the models do agree on, it will likely move west toward the Lesser Antilles. The models also do show that it could possibly become somewhat organized. After 5 days or so, the models widely diverge, both in track and intensity. And when I said widely, I meant anything from Mexico to the Canadian Maritimes. BUT, there is one thing to note: it's not yet an organized system yet. The models typically don't have a good handle on disorganized entities. Not to mention, some models have it too organized or too disorganized to begin their run. All of that and much, much more plays into how a model progresses forward with a storm.

Right now, all you should be doing is monitoring. Don't make a big deal about this unorganized system, yet. Maybe once it gets into the Caribbean, that's when you can start watching it more closely, and hopefully the models will have a better handle on what this system may or may not be,

Regardless of where it moves and how strong it is (or if it even develops), you should always be prepared for a hurricane. Even if a hurricane doesn't strike you, these supplies can also come in handy in other weather situations (thunderstorms, flooding, tornadoes, etc.) or even just a power outage.

All this to say, watch who you get your information from. In general, on Facebook and Twitter, look for the little blue check next to their name. That typically means that they are verified and are trustworthy. Now, that's not always the case (the example I posted toward the beginning actually had a blur check by their name), but it is true more often than not. Official news agencies, official meteorologists, and government agencies are the best sources to follow.

Stay prepared, stay calm, and stay informed.

Useful links:
National Weather Service
Website: http://www.weather.gov
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/NWS
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/NWS

National Hurricane Center
Website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic & http://www.twitter.com/NHC_Pacific

FEMA Disaster Preparedness
Website: http://www.fema.gov/disaster/4085/updates/building-supply-kit-your-family