NW Florida Weather - Severe Weather Recap

After 3 rounds of severe weather within 2 days here in Northwest Florida, we definitely need a break from the severe weather, and it looks like we will get that. Sunshine and near-normal temperatures can be expected for the next several days (except Wednesday when we could see some showers and warm temperatures).

Below is a recap of the severe weather reports received through the weekend:

Green = Hail; Blue = Wind Damage/Gusts; Red = Tornado/Funnel Cloud/Waterspout

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Time	Location	County	Observation	Description
10:31 AM	4 mi. ENE of Dean Church Road	Walton	Unknown	Tree down on power line on Spring Lake Road.
10:40 AM	6 mi. W of Destin	Okaloosa & GMZ655	Waterspout	Report of two waterspouts off the coast of Okaloosa Island.
7:49 PM	2 mi. NNW of Pace	Santa Rosa	1.25” Hail	One to two inch hail reported near Pace. Time estimated via radar.
8:00 PM	Walnut Hill	Escambia	2.00” Hail	Reports of measured 2 inch hail near Walnut Hill.

Sunday, January 22, 2017

8:45 AM	1 mi. S of Navarre	Santa Rosa	1.00” Hail	Quarter sized hail in Navarre, FL
9:25 AM	Fort Walton Beach	Okaloosa	1.00” Hail	Quarter sized hail. Pictures from social media.
9:32 AM	Cantonment	Escambia	1.00” Hail	Quarter sized hail in Cantonment.
9:34 AM	4 mi. SSW of Fort Walton Beach	Okaloosa & GMZ655	Waterspout	Waterspout reported from Hurlburt Field ASOS.
10:10 AM	DeFuniak Springs	Walton	1.00” Hail	Photo received via email.
10:30 AM	4 mi. E of Brent	Escambia	Funnel Cloud	Funnel cloud seen near Spanish Trail Rd. via video on social media.
10:30 AM	2 mi. SW of Eglin AFB	Okaloosa	Unknown	Large tree limb snapped in Shalimar, FL.
10:48 AM	4 mi. W of Fort Walton Beach	Okaloosa	1.00” Hail	Hail on Hurlburt Field. Pictures via social media.
12:00 PM	DeFuniak Springs Airport	Walton	Unknown	Multiple trees and power lines down in DeFuniak Springs and Freeport. Time based on radar and operator logs.
1:00 PM	Panama City Airport	Bay	Unknown	Multiple trees and power lines down in greater Panama City area.
1:00 PM	Vernon	Washington	Unknown	Multiple reports of trees down countywide. Time estimated using radar and operator logs.
1:00 PM	Bonifay	Holmes	Unknown	Multiple trees down countywide. Time estimated using radar and operator logs.
1:04 PM	Tyndall AFB	Bay	68 mph	68 mph wind gust reported at the drone runway.
1:30 PM	Clarksville	Calhoun	Unknown	Multiple trees and power lines down countywide
1:34 PM	Marianna	Jackson	58 mph	58 mph wind gust reported at Marianna Municipal Airport
1:34 PM	Marianna	Jackson	Unknown	Several trees down countywide. Time estimated using radar, operator logs, and KMAI wind data.

NW Florida Weather - Saturday & Sunday's Severe Setup

I know that you've been enjoying highs in the 70s over the past week or so, but, unfortunately in winter, that usually comes with a price. The price? Severe weather. We have two rounds of severe weather as we move forward into the weekend. Let's talk about timing and threats.

ROUND 1 - Saturday Morning into early Saturday Afternoon

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Convective Outlooks for Friday (top) and Saturday (bottom). Top image is valid until 6 AM CST Saturday; bottom image is valid from 6 AM CST Saturday until 6 AM CST Sunday.

The severe threat starts to increase from the west late tonight into early Saturday morning. It appears for the majority of Northwest Florida, the first round of severe weather will likely occur between 6 AM and 3 PM as a line of thunderstorms moves through the region. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the western half of our area in a Marginal or Slight Risk of severe weather (levels 1 and 2 out of 5, respectively) until 6 AM Saturday morning. Then, for Saturday, the risk of severe weather increases to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5).

Simulated radar from the NAM 3km model. Valid from 6 AM CST Saturday through 3 PM CST Saturday. Animation courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com.

The model forecast above shows a broken line of showers and thunderstorms advancing across Northwest Florida during the morning and early afternoon hours. Now, this is one run of one model, but most model guidance does agree, and I tend to agree with this solution. You should never take any one run of any one model as gospel! They are just guidance!

One concern that I have is that as the line approaches, the storms that sweep through Northwest Florida become more individualized. This means that these storms could become supercellular (rotating storms). This may increase our tornado threat initially in the morning hours. The ingredients will be in place for severe storms. Let's take a look at some tools:

NAM model forecast of MLCAPE (mixed-layer CAPE) from 6 AM CST to 3 PM CST Saturday. Animation courtesy of pivotalweather.com.

The NAM forecasts a sufficient amount of instability in our area as we head into the late morning and early afternoon. Generally in the winter, MLCAPE values of 500 or more are sufficient for severe weather. Values will be increasing to nearly 2,000 in some places, which is very impressive for January.

NAM model forecast of the Bulk Wind Shear from the surface up to 500 mb (about 18,000 feet) valid from 6 AM CST to 3 PM CST Saturday. Animation courtesy of pivotalweather.com.

Shear is another requirement for severe weather. Generally, 35 to 40 knots of shear is sufficient for severe thunderstorm development. The NAM forecasts roughly 45-55 knots of shear through this time period, which favors severe storms and supercells.

NAM model forecast of 0-3 km Storm Relative Helicity valid from 6 AM CST to 3 PM CST Saturday. Animation courtesy of pivotalweather.com.

Storm relative helicity takes into account the change of wind speed and direction with height. This is for the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere. Values of 250 or greater are supportive of supercells, but the NAM is pushing values of 250-300 in some areas.

The atmosphere becomes more supportive of severe weather as we head through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible with the first round. All thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain and dangerous lightning.

ROUND 2 - Saturday Evening through Sunday Morning

NAM model forecast of the radar valid from 6 PM CST Saturday through Noon CST Sunday. Animation courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com.

CAVEAT: I don't fully agree with the end of this animation. I do not know if that low that pops up at the end of the animation, and that can greatly affect the forecast. I would like to see a little more consistency in the model runs and also among the models before I adjust the forecast.

There may be a break in the activity during the late afternoon. However, any storms that develop during the afternoon will still be capable of producing severe weather.

SPC outlooks for Saturday (top) and Sunday (bottom). Saturday's outlook is valid from 6 AM CST Saturday until 6 AM CST Sunday. Sunday's outlook is valid from 6 AM CST Sunday until 6 AM CST Monday.

Even through the evening and overnight hours, Northwest Florida remains in an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe weather. By Sunday, the risk starts shifting eastward. Calhoun and Gulf Counties remain in an Enhanced Risk, while the risk starts dropping back to the west. The threat for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will continue into the overnight hours.

NAM model forecast MLCAPE valid from 6 PM CST Saturday until Noon CST Sunday. Animation courtesy of pivotalweather.com.

Instability will be highest in the evening hours, but will decrease during the overnight hours as temperatures cool off and storms move off to the east. Even though instability will decrease, it will still be sufficient for severe thunderstorm development. Plus, shear will complement the instability.

NAM model forecast surface to 500 mb (about 18,000 feet) wind shear valid from 6 PM CST Saturday until Noon CST Sunday. Animation courtesy of pivotalweather.com.

Shear will greatly increase as we head into the overnight hours to 60 to 80 knots, well above what's needed for severe weather development. Even with the decreased instability, the shear will compensate and will help contribute to severe weather development.

NAM model forecast for 0-3 km Storm Relative Helicity valid from 6 PM CST Saturday until Noon CST Sunday. Animation courtesy of pivotalweather.com.

With shear increasing, the storm relative helicity will also increase to over 250 m^2/s^2. This increases the threat of supercells. With all of these ingredients in place, the severe weather threat will continue into the night. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will continue to be possible.

OVERVIEW

NAM model forecast for Significant Tornado Parameter valid from 6 AM CST Saturday until Noon CST Sunday. Animation courtesy of pivotalweather.com.

This animation shows the Significant Tornado Parameter. A "significant tornado" is defined as a tornado of EF-2 intensity or greater (winds of 111 mph or more). Now, high values on the significant tornado parameter do not mean significant tornadoes will occur. I use this as a worst-case scenario, essentially the worst that the atmosphere could produce given the other conditions and given that thunderstorms actually form. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible. I will not rule out the potential of one or two significant and/or long-track tornadoes. There will be two rounds, Saturday morning/early afternoon and then Saturday evening/Sunday morning.

SAFETY

• Know your safe place - it should be an interior room without windows on the lowest floor of a well-built building. If you live in a mobile home or manufactured home, you need to have a plan to evacuate and get to a well-built building if a tornado warning is issued. Have things to protect your head such as helmets, pots/pans, etc.
• Have multiple ways to get warnings - TV, internet, radio, smartphone apps, wireless emergency alerts, weather radio. Make sure your phone has wireless emergency alerts enabled. They will alert you if a tornado warning or flash flood warning is issued by pinging your phone off the nearest cell tower. If you use weather apps, make sure you have location enabled so your phone's GPS can locate you and the app can alert you based on your location. Program your weather radio so that it alerts you to warnings issued for your county. If you don't have a weather radio, you should get one. It's a $20-30 investment that could save your life.
• Be sure you can get woken up at night if a warning is issued - this is where the wireless emergency alerts and weather radio come in handy. Turn the volume up on your phone so that you can hear the wireless emergency alert being issued. Turn your weather radio on alert mode. If a warning is issued for your county, it will sound a very loud tone that will likely wake you up. Trust me, it's a loud tone.

NW Florida Weather - Rounds of Severe Weather

Residents of Northwest Florida will have to deal with a couple rounds of severe weather through this weekend. First, we will talk about Thursday's severe weather risk.

THURSDAY - January 19th

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Convective Outlook with a zoom on Northwest Florida. Valid from 6 AM CST Thursday until 6 AM CST Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the western half of Northwest Florida (Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa Counties) in a "Marginal Risk" of severe weather (green-shaded area). This is a Level 1 out of 5 with 5 being the highest. The main threat will be an isolated damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat is very low, but not zero. Thus, I cannot rule out an isolated tornado. Timing appears to be Thursday late afternoon into Thursday night.

(from PivotalWeather.com) NAM 4 km model forecast radar valid from 6 AM CST Thursday until 6 AM CST Friday.

As the storms move from west to east, they will gradually weaken, resulting in a slightly better chance of severe weather over the western parts of Northwest Florida. However, that does not mean strong storms can be ruled out. Even if you aren't in the marginal risk zone, storms can still contain gusty winds and dangerous lightning. Rainfall totals are not expected to be impressive, on the order of 0.5 to 1 inch.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY - January 21-22

SPC Convective Outlooks for Saturday (top) and Sunday (bottom). Yellow-shaded area delineates 15% severe risk, which is equivalent to a slight risk (level 2 out of 5).

Saturday and Sunday could pose a "significant" severe weather risk, as the National Weather Service in Mobile stated. It is possible that the severe risk could start earlier, maybe Friday night. It currently appears that there could be 2 rounds of severe weather here in Northwest Florida. The first may come Friday night into Saturday morning as a warm front moves northward. In the vicinity of the warm front, there will be sufficient shear and sufficient helicity (turning of the winds, spin) to support a severe weather risk. Here is an excerpt from the NWS Mobile's forecast discussion from Wednesday afternoon:

Based on the timing of the best deep layer lift, which includes a bit
of a respite around midday Saturday, expect a round of severe
weather late Friday night through Saturday morning as the warm front
lifts northward through the area, followed by a second round of
severe weather developing Saturday afternoon and continuing through
Saturday night.

The second round of severe weather for this weekend comes in during Saturday afternoon. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be possible with this weekend's severe weather risk. Through Sunday morning, we continue the severe weather risk, although it may be slightly lower than the risk on Saturday afternoon. However, all modes of severe weather will be possible (tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail).

A more detailed analysis of this weekend's severe weather risk will be posted either tomorrow and/or Friday. If severe weather is a bit lackluster on Thursday, I will have another post tomorrow afternoon or evening. This post may or may not happen, depending on how tomorrow's weather unfolds. Friday, there will be a forecast update regarding this weekend's severe weather risk. For quick updates, you can always visit my Facebook or Twitter pages.

Northwest Florida Weather (12/5/2016) - Another Severe Weather Threat

The Convective Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) showing the risk of severe weather across the state of Florida. This map is valid until 6 AM CST Tuesday.

For the second time within a week, we are talking about the risk of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Northwest Florida in a "Slight Risk" of severe weather, meaning that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. This is a level 2 out of 5 (5 being the highest). Recall that last Wednesday, we had a slight risk of severe weather in our area. That day, we had two tornadoes in Okaloosa County. Just because it's a "slight risk" does not mean that severe weather won't happen. You need to be on guard. Let's talk about the set-up a bit.

Surface analysis showing observations, frontal positions as well as high and low pressure systems across the south central United States. This map is from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) valid at 9 AM CST.

At 9 AM CST, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) analyzed a stationary front from a low pressure center south of the Texas/Louisiana border northeastward to near Panama City Beach, Florida, and into southwestern Georgia.  From this low pressure center, there is a cold front extending southward through the western Gulf of Mexico. As this low strengthens and moves northeastward, the stationary front will lift northward as a warm front, bringing warm, moist air into all of Northwest Florida. This will help set up a severe weather threat this afternoon and into the overnight hours.

4 km NAM showing sea level pressure isobars (solid black lines), 1000-500 mb thickness (dashed red and blue lines), and 6 hour accumulated precipitation (shading). Fronts, highs, and lows, drawn in by me. Valid from noon CST Monday through 8 AM CST Tuesday.

The cold front, according to the 4 km NAM, is forecast to clear all of Northwest Florida by mid Tuesday morning. We will have to watch any storms that develop south of the warm front, since they will have the best environment for isolated tornadoes to develop. With the cold front, we may see a broken line of thunderstorms that will bring a risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Let's look at a couple forecast soundings.

Forecast sounding for KVPS (Eglin AFB, FL) valid at 00Z (6 PM CST). Focusing on the left half of the image, the solid red line is the temperature profile through the atmosphere. The solid green line is the dew point profile through the atmosphere. The pressure is labeled on the left in millibars (mb), decreasing with height. The temperature is labeled on the bottom in degrees Celsius. Note, the temperature contours (dashed white lines) go up and to the right. Winds are on the right hand side in knots. Several parameters are listed below. Image courtesy of pivotalweather.com

This sounding from the 4 km NAM model shows a (near) saturated atmosphere from 500 mb down to the surface, meaning that the model is likely predicting rain at this time. Let's go over some of the things that will aid in severe thunderstorm development at this time:

• Abundantly moist atmosphere
• Okay shear. Not really all that impressive, but enough.
• High (for this time of year) instability above the surface.
• Warm air advection (lifting mechanism).
• High storm relative helicity (SRH) - helps with rotation.

Okay, so, what's the catch? Well, the near surface layer. If you notice the temperature profile near the bottom of the chart, it is steeper than the temperature contours, meaning that the atmosphere is warming as you increase in height. This is opposite of what typically happens (temperature generally cools as you increase with height in the troposphere). This warming is called an inversion, and it essentially acts as a lid for the atmosphere, meaning that it is increasingly more difficult for air to rise above this lid, and cannot produce surface-based convection. That's why the SFC CAPE is only 98 in the above image. But if you look at the mixed-layer (ML) CAPE, it's over 1,000. The mixed-layer takes into account a layer of the atmosphere, which varies based on the program used, and uses that as the source of air parcels. So, it's possible that some of the storms could be, what we call, elevated, meaning not originating from the surface. However, this does not inherently decrease the severe threat. Since the inversion is rather shallow (only up to 980 mb), there are two possibilities.

• Rising air may be able to overcome the shallow inversion (especially since it is a rather weak inversion), or
• This inversion is caused by rain-cooled air (remember, we said that the sounding showed that it may be raining at this time).

Either way, the sounding's algorithm spits out a "possible hazard type" of "marginal tornado." I like to use this as a worst-case scenario. Thus, the worst thing that the atmosphere is capable of producing with this environment is a weak tornado.

Same as above, except valid at 06Z (12 AM CST) tonight

In this sounding (valid at midnight tonight), there is not much left of the inversion mentioned above, meaning air can readily rise from the surface. As a result, the SFC CAPE is now 716 in this sounding. However, the storm-relative helicity has decreased since the winds don't turn as much with height. Thus, this still results in a marginal tornado threat.

Same as above, except valid at 3 AM CST Tuesday.

This sounding shows very similar things as the previous sounding. Lack of a surface inversion, plenty of moisture, but winds are stronger above the surface (now near 50 knots). This increases the amount of shear and also increases the storm-relative helicity (which takes speed and direction into account). Thus, the "possible hazard type" has now changed to "tornado." So, what does this mean?

The severe weather threat does not end once the sun goes down. In fact, it may increase overnight tonight. I strongly urge you to have multiple ways to receive warnings. Since most people nowadays have smartphones, that is one way to receive warnings.

Check on your phone to see if you have your Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) activated. These will send a notification to your phone (it will vibrate and emit a loud tone) whenever a Tornado or Flash Flood Warning is issued. It is geo-located according to cell phone towers. It will wake you up in the middle of the night and alert you to what's going on. Also, if you have any weather apps on your phone, check to see if they have an alert mode. You should turn that on too. But, what if your phone is dead?

You should have this one anyways. A weather radio! This one is very important to have. They're $20 at most places and very easy to program. This one will send out very loud tones (loudest I've ever heard) when a warning is issued for your county. Remember to get batteries for your weather radio though! TV and social media re good as well, but can be unreliable, especially in the event of a power outage.

Either way, you should have at least two different ways to receive warnings, especially during the overnight hours. Let's face it. The last thing you're thinking about when going to bed is the weather. But in this case, it needs to be one of the first things you think about. Overnight tornadoes are extremely dangerous. It's dark outside so you won't be able to see the tornado until it's too late. You need to be able to be woken up in the case of threatening weather and seek safe shelter as soon as a warning is issued.

Do not rely on tornado sirens! Sirens are meant for those who are outdoors and are not meant to be heard indoors. Plus, sirens are not required in all cities or counties. They are one of the most unreliable methods of warning.

So again, stay aware and stay safe tonight. You need to have multiple ways to receive warnings. And before you go home from work or school this evening, why not pick up a weather radio and some batteries? It can save your life.

Northwest Florida Weather (11/29/2016) - Another Severe Weather Threat

Before I begin this blog post, I'd like to extend my sincerest thoughts and prayers to those in Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and surrounding areas that were affected by the wildfire. Extremely sad situation with loss of life. I'm thankful, as I'm sure many are, for the first responders' and emergency personnel's acting quickly as it could have been a lot worse.

Now, back to Northwest Florida weather information.

Well, frankly, last night ended up being a lack of rain for most areas. The good news is that we didn't have any severe weather in our area, but the bad news is that most areas didn't get much rain, if any. Why was that?

Well, last night, we were lacking instability, which some models were not picking up on. The line of storms was forecast to weaken as it moved further east, but the actual line weakened sooner than what models were thinking. Most of the better lift and instability was to our north and away from us in Northwest Florida.

So, what about tonight and tomorrow?

The Convective Outlook issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). This map is valid through 6 AM CST Wednesday morning.

Parts of Northwest Florida are in the "Marginal Risk" of severe weather. This is a Level 1 out of 5, meaning we could get some isolated severe thunderstorms. But, what severe weather we might get would be closer to 6 AM Wednesday.

SPC's Convective Outlook for 6 AM Wednesday through 6 AM Thursday.

SPC has place all of Northwest Florida under a "Marginal Risk" for Wednesday. This again is a Level 1 out of 5. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible, with damaging winds being the main threat with any severe thunderstorms. Let's talk some meteorology!

Model sounding from the HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) Model valid at 11 AM CST Wednesday at KVPS (Eglin AFB, FL). Focusing mostly on the left half of the image. The solid red line is the temperature profile through the atmosphere, the solid green line is the dew point profile. Pressure is labeled in millibars on the left, decreasing with height. Temperatures are labeled on the bottom in degrees Celsius. Multiple parameter are located at the bottom of the image. Image courtesy of pivotalweather.com and SHARPpy.

I personally think these model soundings are a meteorologist's best friend. There's just an abundance of information you can get from these. So, let's see what there is to see.

• Generally, there is atmosphere is abundantly moist, especially at/below 700 mb. There are two ways we can see this. First, the temperature and dew point lines are pretty close together. Second, the precipitable water (labeled PW in the parameters table) is around 1.67 inches, meaning the atmosphere is sufficiently moist. Note about the precipitable water: Basically, it's how much water would accumulate if all the moisture in the atmosphere above a point was wrung out. The moisture allows for cloud and precipitation development. Also, the more moist the atmosphere is, the higher possibility of heavy rainfall, and the rainfall can help transfer some higher winds aloft to the surface ("waterloading")
• Warm air advection through the lower portion of the atmosphere. This is a lifting mechanism. Warm air is less dense and warm air can rise.
• CAPE is high, meaning plentiful instability, allowing air to rise easily.
• Decent shear, which is favorable for thunderstorm development.
• Dry adiabatic layer from about 900 mb to the surface. (Dry adiabatic layer means that the temperature profile is parallel to the dry adiabatic lapse rate, denoted by the thin diagonal white lines going up and to the left. The dry adiabatic lapse rate is the rate at which the atmosphere cools as you proceed upward in the atmosphere if the atmosphere is not saturated.) This will allow winds to be transported downward more easily.

One note, the sounding algorithms do spit out a "possible hazard type" of tornado. I use this only as a worst case scenario. This should not be taken as there gospel truth.

So, the signals are good for at least thunderstorms, and maybe some severe storms. But there are a couple of caveats.

• Helicity is not all that impressive, meaning that there is not as much spin in the atmosphere. Thus, it does not lend itself to an atmosphere supportive of tornadoes. That's not to say it can't happen, but it's less likely.
• This model assumes that the temperature will make it to near 80 degrees at the surface. I'm not fully confident in that solution. I do think it will be warm, but I'm not sure about it being that warm. This affects CAPE, low level moisture, and that dry adiabatic layer.

Here is what the HRRR model (the same one the sounding is from) predicts the radar will look like:

HRRR predicted 1 km reflectivity valid from 8 PM CST Tuesday through 11 AM CST Wednesday.

The HRRR only goes out 18 hours. It shows a line of thunderstorms (potentially strong to severe) entering Northwest Florida around 9 AM (+/- 2 hours). But the general trend looks to be slow weakening as it moves further east.

So, again, this is just one run of one model. Just one tool in our toolbox. Let's take a look at one other model.

This is a model sounding from the NAM valid at 12 PM CST Wednesday. Same properties as the sounding above.

So, just like the HRRR, the NAM has abundant moisture, warm air advection, decent CAPE (for this time of year), and decent shear. Now, there are a few differences. It's not as warm at the surface, thus nearly eliminating the dry adiabatic layer. Speaking of which, it looks like the dry adiabatic layer is only from 975 mb to the surface, not nearly enough for easily transporting winds from aloft to the surface. But, there is more helicity than there was in the HRRR sounding, meaning more possibility for rotation. So, what does this mean?

With lower instability, we may not see as much thunderstorm development. With fewer thunderstorms to tap into that helicity, the threat of tornadoes is lower. There could still be damaging winds with stronger storms. But what does the predicted radar look like with the NAM?

NAM predicted radar valid from 9 PM CST Tuesday through 9 PM Wednesday.

The NAM does not have as much in the way of intense convection (meaning that it may not be predicting as much thunderstorm activity). The NAM also brings in the convection later than the HRRR, closer to 12 PM. But the general trend is the same, weakening as it moves further east.

So what does this all mean for your forecast? We will probably see more scattered showers around Northwest Florida tonight, not really expecting much in the way of thunderstorm activity tonight, but can't rule out an isolated storm. Severe weather is not expected tonight. Wednesday is our better chance of rain. Showers and thunderstorms look to move into Northwest Florida during the mid to late morning and move eastward. The general trend is for the line to weaken as it moves further east. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out with damaging winds being the main threats. Widespread severe weather is not expected in our area.