We are well into hurricane/typhoon season across the Northern Hemisphere. Above are 3 charts showing the occurrences of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Western Pacific (respectively). As you can see, around August and September, there is a notable amount of tropical cyclone activity in all three basins. Another interesting note: the part of the chart where the background is the yellow/red gradient is the basin's defined hurricane/typhoon season.
- Atlantic: June 1 through November 30
- Eastern Pacific: May 15 through November 30
- Western Pacific: year-round
REMNANTS OF MERANTI
"How quickly the mighty have fallen." Meranti has dissipated over eastern China, but not before ravaging parts of Taiwan and China with prolific rains and strong winds. In this first video, you can see one of the viral videos from Meranti as it blew through Taiwan. This is why you should NEVER venture outside during a hurricane/typhoon. This person was riding his motor scooter down the street while then-Super Typhoon Meranti was lashing Taiwan. The driver stops and is hit by flying debris (what looks to be either metal siding or part of a roof). Thankfully, the driver did not appear to be seriously injured, and he is lucky to be alive. But, when meteorologists tell you to seek safety, we are not just saying that. We want you to be safe, and we care about your lives.
Another video from Meranti comes from the city of Fuzhou in the Fujian province of southeastern China. An inflatable moon balloon was freed from its moorings by Typhoon Meranti as it struck mainland China. The inflatable moon was part of the Mid-Autumn Festival. Well, of course, wind and balloons are generally not a good combination, and the moon balloon went loose, rolling over cars as it blew through the streets of Fuzhou.
TYPHOON MALAKAS
As if Taiwan hasn't dealt with enough this week, Typhoon Malakas is looming offshore. On this latest satellite loop, it looks like an eye is starting to form with Malakas as it moves toward the northwest. Here is the latest information (7 PM CDT/00Z) from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:
As of 7 PM CDT (00Z), the center of Typhoon Malakas was near 20.1 N, 124.7 E, and was moving toward the northwest at 14 mph. Taiwan is very much within the cone of uncertainty, but it appears that the center may pass just to the east of Taiwan. However, that does not mean Taiwan is in the clear. Heavy rainfall and strong winds are still possible as Malakas moves closer. Malakas will continue strengthening, though not quite to Super Typhoon status. Malakas will make a northeastward turn toward southern Japan, potentially as a typhoon.
TROPICAL STORM ORLENE
Now we move to the eastern Pacific where we have Tropical Storm Orlene. Really, there's not much left of it. Orlene has been battling some dry air, and the center has become displaced to the east of the convection. Orlene continues to weaken as it moves further west in the open Pacific. Here's the latest information (10 PM CDT/03Z) from the National Hurricane Center:
Orlene will gradually weaken as it moves further west and could become post-tropical as we head into next week.SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 123.8W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
INVEST 93E
Invest 93E is located offshore of the Mexican west coast. Right now, 93E is rather disorganized, but the National Hurricane Center believes this will become the next tropical depression in the eastern Pacific. Here is their latest outlook (1 AM CDT/06Z):
The National Hurricane Center shows that 93E will eventually turn off to the northwest and parallel the west coast of Mexico, maybe getting close to southern Baja California. However, it's way too early to tell. Here is the latest model guidance for 93E:A broad area of low pressure, centered several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend or early next week while the low moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 mph, parallel to the coast of Mexico. *Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent *Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Models are very spread out regarding 93E's eventual track. So, until we get a developed system, we generally won't have a good handle on 93E's path. By the way, the next name in the Eastern Pacific is Paine.
TROPICAL STORM IAN
Ian is in the central North Atlantic affecting no one except the fish and any shipping lines out there. It is racing further off to the northeast. Here is the latest information (10 PM CDT/03Z) from the National Hurricane Center:
Wait. Read the movement on Ian again. Notice anything unusual? Ian's forward speed is an incredible 53 mph! It will continue zooming off to the northeast as it becomes extratropical and eventually merges with another low pressure center.SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.9N 44.9W ABOUT 1305 MI...2105 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 53 MPH...85 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM JULIA
The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been plagued with stubborn invests or storms (looking at you 99L/Hermine), and Julia is no exception. After forming over land (only about 2% of tropical cyclones have accomplished that in the Atlantic), Julia has stubborn refused to follow any path that the National Hurricane Center, or any meteorologist, has forecast. Julia briefly weakened to a tropical depression, but the Hurricane Hunters found that Julia regained tropical storm status earlier today. But, to give credit to the National Hurricane Center, a storm's center is expected to fall within their forecast cone 67% of the time. The other 33%, the storms can move out of the cone. Here is the current information (10 PM CDT/03Z) for Tropical Storm Julia.
Julia is still not expected to move much, but it is expected to weaken, and eventually dissipate, over the coming days.SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 77.1W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM KARL
This is the latest tropical storm in the northern Atlantic. Tropical Storm Karl was upgraded earlier today as it moves westward away from the Cabo Verde Islands. It has shown signs of better organization, and was deemed strong enough to be upgraded. Here is the latest information (10 PM CDT/03Z) from the National Hurricane Center:
Karl is expected to maintain its intensity or maybe slightly weaken as it encounters some less-than-favorable conditions over the next couple of days, but then strengthen as it moves closer to the Leeward Islands. However, Karl is still 5 to 6 days away from affecting land again, so there is plenty of time to watch this system, and it is WAY too early to say if this storm will have any impacts on the United States.SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 32.5W ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1930 MI...3105 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
EX-INVEST 92L
Speaking of stubborn invests or storms, here is what-once-was Invest 92L. It finally made its way into the Gulf of Mexico as a disorganized mess. Ex-92L is not expected to develop. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished in association with an elongated area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur before it moves inland over Texas by Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
TROPICAL WAVE OVER WESTERN AFRICA
The blob of convection on the coast of west Africa is our next system to watch. (The blob off to its northwest is Karl.) This system will probably be designated Invest 96L once it moves off the coast of Africa. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:
If this wave becomes our next tropical storm, the next name on the list is Lisa. There are favorable conditions once it moves offshore, but the conditions will become unfavorable later on.A tropical wave is expected to move off of the west coast of Africa today and move generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern Atlantic. Some development of this wave is possible before conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
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