SUPER TYPHOON MERANTI
This is Super Typhoon Meranti. It has just passed by (as of 9 PM CDT/02Z) the southern tip of Taiwan. It is starting to weaken as the eye of Meranti is starting to become covered in clouds and is cooling (brighter colors). Generally, for a healthy tropical cyclone, you want cold-topped thunderstorms with a warmer eye. The greater the contrast between the thunderstorms near the center and the eye, the stronger the tropical cyclone is. Also, interesting fact: earlier today, Meranti became tied for 2nd for the strongest winds estimated for a typhoon in the western Pacific with winds of 190 mph. The strongest winds estimated for a typhoon were 195 mph from Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Satellite estimation is most common with systems that are over open waters and away from any observation sites. The most common satellite estimation techinique is the Dvorak method. You can read more about it here. The strongest winds ever recorded for a tropical cyclone, period, was Hurricane Patricia with sustained winds of 215 mph! Here is the latest (7 PM CDT/00Z) advisory information from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:
Meranti was located at 21.6 N, 120.7 E, moving NW at 15 mph. The maximum sustained winds (estimated by satellite) were 180 mph, making Meranti a Super Typhoon and equivalent to a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Meranti is forecast to continue moving northwestward toward mainland China, possibly landfalling as a typhoon. Heavy rain will lead to flooding across portions of southeast China over the coming days.
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS
This is Tropical Storm Malakas in the western Pacific east of the Philippines. Malakas is not expected to directly impact the Philippines, but could pose a threat to Japan over the coming days. Here is the latest (7 PM CDT/00Z) advisory information for Malakas from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center:
Malakas is currently located at 15.5 N, 133.0 E, and is moving WNW at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds (estimated) are near 70 mph. Malakas is expected to intensify and gain typhoon status shortly and continue strengthening as it moves primarily to the north of Taiwan, though it is not currently forecast to become a super typhoon. However, Malakas is currently forecast to impact southern Japan as a typhoon in the coming days.
HURRICANE ORLENE
This is Hurricane Orlene in the eastern Pacific. Orlene is just drifting around right now, but is expected to make a turn toward the west soon. Here is the latest (10 PM CDT/03Z) information for Orlene from the National Hurricane Center:
Yes, you read that correctly. Orlene is moving north at 1 mph. That's probably the slowest setting you have on your treadmill. Orlene is expected to weaken as it makes its westward turn, and could weaken back to tropical depression status this weekend.SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 118.6W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM IAN
Ian is still rather disorganized. If you look closely, you can see that the center is south of the main area of convection as Ian continues to deal with strong southerly shear. This has helped to inhibit any major strengthening thus far. Here is the latest (10 PM CDT/03Z) information from Ian from the National Hurricane Center:
Ian is expected to remain away from any land areas and affect no one. That's what we like to see. Ian may strengthen a bit more, and some guidance brings it close to hurricane status. The official forecast calls for a maximum intensity of 65 mph.SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 52.8W ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM JULIA
Surprise! Well, sort of. This was Invest 93-L. The National Hurricane Center at 7 AM CDT Tuesday morning gave this a "near 0% chance" of formation, because it was rather disorganized. Then, at 1 PM CDT, the National Hurricane Center upped the chances to 40%, noting that organization was increasing and that advisories could be initiated soon. They decided not to initiate advisories at 4 PM CDT, but increased the chances of development to 70% at 7 PM CDT. At 10 PM CDT, the National Hurricane Center officially declared this a tropical storm. But, there's something weird about Julia's formation. Technically, Julia became a tropical storm over land. While it has happened before, it is a very rare occurrence. What may have happened is that as 93L paralleled the coast of northeastern Florida, the friction from the land versus the water helped tighten up the circulation moreso, giving 93L more organization. Tropical storm force winds are possible in some of the rainbands. So, here is the latest (10 PM CDT/03Z) information from the National Hurricane Center:
There are Tropical Storm Warnings in effect for some locations:SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 81.6W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
- In Florida: coastal Nassau and coastal Duval counties
- In Georgia: Glynn and Camden counties
INVEST 95L
Our final stop takes us out to the other side of the Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. This is Invest 95L, It is moving off to the west-northwest, bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands. Here is the latest (7 PM CDT/00Z) from the National Hurricane Center:
Some development from 95L is possible over the coming days. Here are the latest model runs for 95L:A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Once 95L clears the Cabo Verde Islands, it will continue on a west or west-northwest track over the open tropical Atlantic, not affecting any land in the forseeable future. But, if 95L does become a named storm, the next name on the list is Karl.
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