Hermine Hugs the East Coast, Gaston Grazes the Azores, and Lester Looms Near Hawaii

It has been very active in the tropics. In fact, every tropical cyclone over the past several days in the central/eastern Pacific and the Atlantic has had at least one tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning:

• Tropical Depression Eight (Atlantic) had Tropical Storm Warnings for the Outer Banks of North Carolina
• Hurricane Madeline (now dissipated) had Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings for parts of Hawaii
• Hurricane (now Tropical Storm) Gaston has Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the Azores
• Hurricane (now Tropical Storm) Hermine had Hurricane Watches and Warnings for parts of Florida and currently has Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings up and down the Eastern Seaboard
• Hurricane Lester currently has Hurricane Watches for portions of Hawaii

So, let's start with the threat to the Azores: Tropical Storm Gaston

TROPICAL STORM GASTON

Well, Gaston's days are numbered. What was once an impressive major hurricane is now a nearly convectionless swirl. Here is the latest (11 PM AST) Advisory from the National Hurricane Center:

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...40.1N 28.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM N OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Flores and Corvo in the western Azores, and for Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores. Gaston is expected to continue weakening and dissipate into a remnant low by Saturday. The saga of Gaston will soon come to an end.

HURRICANE LESTER

Lester is a Category 2 Hurricane moving to the north of Hawaii. However, Hurricane Watches continue for the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, and Oahu. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions (winds of 74+ mph) are possible within the next 48 hours. Here is the latest information (5 PM HST) from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...20.5N 151.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

While Lester is expected to remain north of the Hawaiian Islands, gusty winds, possibly to near hurricane force, heavy rainfall, and dangerous surf are possible in Hawaii.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE

Hermine roared ashore just east of St. Marks, Florida around 1:30 AM EDT Friday morning as a Category 1 Hurricane, packing winds of 80 mph. Hermine's landfall marked the end of the 3,966-day hurricane drought in Florida. Hermine produced record-breaking storm surge in Cedar Key, FL, and widespread tree damage in the Tallahassee area. Reports of tornadoes, flooding, and strong winds were reported across much of the state. Hermine moved into southern Georgia and eastern South Carolina through the day Friday, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall. Now, Hermine is moving through portions of North Carolina as a mid-grade Tropical Storm. Here is the latest information (as of 11 PM EDT) from the National Hurricane Center:

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 78.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

There are Tropical Storm Watches and Warning all up and down the East Coast. Here are the latest watches and warnings:

• TROPICAL STORM WARNING: from Edisto Beach, SC, to Sandy Hook, NJ; for Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds; for Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward; for Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island eastward; for Delaware Bay
• TROPICAL STORM WATCH: from north of Sandy Hook, NJ, to west of Watch Hill, RI

Hermine will move off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic by Satuday evening, then stall or meander off/near the coast of the Mid-Atlantic through the middle of next week. There is a possibility that Hermine may strengthen back to near hurricane strength early next week.

Hermine could produce more heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina, Virginia, the Delmarva Peninsula, and coastal southern New Jersey. Rainbands on the southern side of Hermine could also produce heavy rainfall across northern Florida through early Saturday.

The main issue with Hermine will be the storm surge. The worst of the storm surge looks to be near the Hampton Roads area. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the tidewater region of Virginia and the southern tip of the Delmarva. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the southern and eastern tip of the Delmarva up to southwestern Connecticut. Storm surge could reach 3 to 5 feet near the Hampton Roads area and 2 to 4 feet in the Storm Surge Watch area. This is due to the fact that Hermine could stall east of the coast and possibly strengthen. The onshore flow along portions of the coast could cause significant and life-threatening storm surge in the watch and warning area.

This is the 00Z (8 PM EDT) run of the GFS. You can see Hermine will move off the coast of North Carolina, then wobble around off the coast for the next several days. This onshore wind along the East Coast will pile up water and allow for storm surge flooding in many areas. There is a question, however, of whether Hermine will be post-tropical (having frontal characteristics), fully tropical, or become post-tropical then tropical again. Regardless of its designation, dangerous surf and potentially life-threatening storm surge is likely just in time for the Labor Day weekend.

INVEST 92L

Not quite done with the tropics yet. Here is Invest 92L in the central Atlantic. This was the wave coming off of Africa I talked about a few posts ago. Well, it has battled dry Saharan air (and actually lost its invest designation), but it is trying to get itself reorganized. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

Shower activity has increased since yesterday in association with a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
However, environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and
any additional development of this system should be slow to occur
while it approaches the Lesser Antilles and continues westward into
the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Now, we can't speculate on whether this will develop or how strong it will get. Right now, the models do agree that 92L will move into the central Caribbean during the next several days. Beyond that, it's anyone's guess.

Remember, we are approaching the peak of Hurricane Season. Hermine was a good reminder to everyone that you should always be prepared for a disaster. Have your emergency kit fully stocked at all times, and just keep an eye on the tropics. Stay safe, be prepared, and know your sources.