NW Florida Weather - Rounds of Severe Weather

Residents of Northwest Florida will have to deal with a couple rounds of severe weather through this weekend. First, we will talk about Thursday's severe weather risk.

THURSDAY - January 19th

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Convective Outlook with a zoom on Northwest Florida. Valid from 6 AM CST Thursday until 6 AM CST Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the western half of Northwest Florida (Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa Counties) in a "Marginal Risk" of severe weather (green-shaded area). This is a Level 1 out of 5 with 5 being the highest. The main threat will be an isolated damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat is very low, but not zero. Thus, I cannot rule out an isolated tornado. Timing appears to be Thursday late afternoon into Thursday night.

(from PivotalWeather.com) NAM 4 km model forecast radar valid from 6 AM CST Thursday until 6 AM CST Friday.

As the storms move from west to east, they will gradually weaken, resulting in a slightly better chance of severe weather over the western parts of Northwest Florida. However, that does not mean strong storms can be ruled out. Even if you aren't in the marginal risk zone, storms can still contain gusty winds and dangerous lightning. Rainfall totals are not expected to be impressive, on the order of 0.5 to 1 inch.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY - January 21-22

SPC Convective Outlooks for Saturday (top) and Sunday (bottom). Yellow-shaded area delineates 15% severe risk, which is equivalent to a slight risk (level 2 out of 5).

Saturday and Sunday could pose a "significant" severe weather risk, as the National Weather Service in Mobile stated. It is possible that the severe risk could start earlier, maybe Friday night. It currently appears that there could be 2 rounds of severe weather here in Northwest Florida. The first may come Friday night into Saturday morning as a warm front moves northward. In the vicinity of the warm front, there will be sufficient shear and sufficient helicity (turning of the winds, spin) to support a severe weather risk. Here is an excerpt from the NWS Mobile's forecast discussion from Wednesday afternoon:

Based on the timing of the best deep layer lift, which includes a bit
of a respite around midday Saturday, expect a round of severe
weather late Friday night through Saturday morning as the warm front
lifts northward through the area, followed by a second round of
severe weather developing Saturday afternoon and continuing through
Saturday night.

The second round of severe weather for this weekend comes in during Saturday afternoon. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be possible with this weekend's severe weather risk. Through Sunday morning, we continue the severe weather risk, although it may be slightly lower than the risk on Saturday afternoon. However, all modes of severe weather will be possible (tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail).

A more detailed analysis of this weekend's severe weather risk will be posted either tomorrow and/or Friday. If severe weather is a bit lackluster on Thursday, I will have another post tomorrow afternoon or evening. This post may or may not happen, depending on how tomorrow's weather unfolds. Friday, there will be a forecast update regarding this weekend's severe weather risk. For quick updates, you can always visit my Facebook or Twitter pages.