NW FL Weather (11/15/2016) - Sunny & Dry, But Turning Cooler

The forecast sounds like a broken record: sunny and dry. Drought conditions continue across Northwest Florida. In fact, much of Northwest Florida is under a "Moderate Drought" (except for a small sliver of northern Santa Rosa County where there is a "Severe Drought").

Current Drought Monitor for the State of Florida. Map courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

This map will be updated on Thursday. Without any rainfall in the next 7 days, our drought will continue to gradually worsen. The drought is taking a serious toll on soil moisture. Here is the Keetch-Byram Drought Index for Northwest Florida.

Current Keetch-Byram Drought Index from the Florida Forest Service. Used Blackwater and Chipola Forest District maps.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) measures the amount of water in the top 32" of soil. It is assumed that the maximum amount of water in that top layer of soil is 8" of water. The index goes from 0 (absolutely wet) to 800 (absolutely dry). So, Okaloosa County is currently the driest county on average according to this index with a value of 666. This means that there is 6.66" of water missing from the soil. Unfortunately, with the dry soil, this helps provide fuel for wildfires.

Without rain in our forecast, we focus purely on the temperatures. As the cold front moves through Saturday morning, it will not bring a substantial rain chance (right now, less than 10%). But, the front does bring cooler, drier air.

Animation of the 18Z (12 PM CST) run of the GFS model showing mean sea-level pressure (black solid lines), 1000-500 mb thickness (red and blue dashed lines), and 6-hr. precipitation accumulation (shaded). Fronts drawn in by me.

The cold front will move through Northwest Florida on Saturday morning. Temperatures will be warmer the further east you are, but will fall once the front passes. Here are your 7-day forecasts for inland and coastal regions (updated since video above):

The National Weather Service in Mobile does note that Frost and/or Freeze Warnings may be required by Sunday night. Several areas could see their first frost and first freeze of the season. Interestingly, Crestview has already had their first freeze of this season (November 11):

Believe it or not, Crestview #FLwx dropped to 32° degrees this morning, making it the first freeze this season. pic.twitter.com/Nv5QB3Jm2p

— Cameron Young (@wx_cam) November 12, 2016

So, prepare for more dry weather. Cooler weather will make its way back down to the Gulf Coast by this weekend and early next week.